Thursday, June 09, 2005

The REALLY Frozen Tundra

On February 11 the Wisconsin Badgers will play hockey at Lambeau Field! They are playing Ohio State. Approximately 40,000 tickets will be sold for everyone to pile into Lambeau to watch this game.

Those reading this that are from the Midwest know just how cold it is in February in this area of the country. I did a bit of research on the average temps in Green Bay in February and I found this site that says the average February temperature for Green Bay is 18 degrees.

Then I started to think - what is average temperature? How is this figured? Upon digging into this I figured out what is done. NOAA takes the high temp and the low temp for a day and chooses the midpoint. They call this the "average temperature" for that day. In other words, if the high is 28 and the low is 12, the average temperature for that day would be 20. Then they added all of these midpoints and divided by 28 (the number of days in February) and that is your "average temperature for February". From this, most would assume that it would be around 18 degrees for the faceoff on February 11 for the game. A frosty prospect indeed.

I think a better way to look at things would be to look at the temps on February 11 over the last 9 years (all I could find that were easily accessible), add them up and divide by 9 - that would be a pretty good predictor of what the temperature might be on that day in 2006. I will take the "high" temp of that day since at 3pm (the starting time of the game) it is just about as warm as it it going to get.

The results were surprising!
The highs for Green Bay on February 11 for the last 9 years:
2005 - 40
2004 - 26
2003 - 18
2002 - 35
2001 - 20
2000 - 21
1999 - 58
1998 - 36
1997 - 25

Average High for February 11 for the last 9 years in Green Bay: 31

Not bad! Many will wonder why they are even doing this. Because they can. Wisconsin sports fans are nuts for anything Badger and Packer - I predict a sellout. It is interesting to me that most of these same fans don't seem to give a damn about the Bucks and Brewers, but that is a different post for a different day.

I guess the moral of all of this is not to believe numbers unless you can vouch for the way they are created.

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